Automakers are planning to open 2017 with a robust 4,678,300 vehicles scheduled for completion in January-March, the second-highest total for the quarter since a record 4,811,021 units were built in like-2000.
But, while the Q1 program represents a 3.0% gain on the 4,542,700 vehicles built in like-2016, nearly all of it, 134,000 units, is due to vehicles built on production lines that were not in operation a year ago.
Without the new lines, the industry’s Q1 tally would have bested that of the like-2016 by just 1,300 units.
Of the new-model volume, 75.4% of it is being accommodated by Kia car and Volkswagen light-truck lines in Mexico, the remainder being Hyundai and VW truck assembly in the U.S.
Elsewhere, first-quarter output plans are mixed.
General Motors, for example, is alone among the traditional Detroit Three in increasing output over year-ago, slating an 8.4% gain.
That compares with a 1.0% decline at Fiat Chrysler, where U.S. car production will have virtually come to a halt with only the ultra-low volume Viper still being assembled after the close of 2016.
Ford’s first-quarter slate is forecast by WardsAuto at a level 5.9% below like-2016. The Dearborn automaker has yet to release its internal production slate.
Among the transplant manufacturers, Honda is gearing for a 2.8% gain on its year-ago Q1 volume, thanks to a 10.5% increase in light-truck production including the all-new ’17 Ridgeline pickup that has re-enter the market after a lapse of several years. Honda car output is set for a 5.8% decline.
Toyota has scheduled production of 6.8% more cars and 2.0% fewer light trucks than it built a year earlier for an overall increase of 1.9%, while rival Nissan’s 16.3% car shortfall was only partly offset by a 6.4% rise in light-truck output, netting it a 7.3% decline.
Still, the robust Q1 outlook comes on the heels of a banner year for the North American auto industry in which an estimated 18.2 million vehicles will have come off the assembly lines by the time the plants close in late December.
The current year-end projection includes an estimated 4,455,900 Q4 builds that reflect a 19,700-unit decline from the fourth-quarter plan envisioned a month ago and one that is a mere 0.6% higher than the 4,431,200 units built in like-2015.
The revised Q4 plan includes a final October output figure 18,600 units lower than had been estimated earlier, with November’s preliminary count up 5,400 vehicles and December’s slate 6,500 units lower than it was a month ago.
